Coast to Coast Sept 29-30, 08

Sept 29

The Ascension of AI

Writer Richard Dooling discussed his research on the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the prospect of computers becoming as intelligent or more intelligent than humans. With Moore's Law pointing towards the doubling of computer chip capacity every 18 months, the computational abilities of the human brain could be reached by a computer as early as 2015, he suggested. The Turing test could be used to determine when we'll know if computers can actually think or mimic thought.

There's been nothing like the development of AI in the history of the human race, said Dooling, who added that eventually AI may start writing its own programs, and he is pessimistic that we'll be able to control them.

Right now, there's a billion computers on the planet, all hooked together via the Internet-- "that is a potential intelligence that could absorb us without us even realizing it," similar to the portrayal in The Matrix, Dooling commented. Along with advancements in nanotechnology, genetics and robotics, he foresees a future akin to The Minority Report where computers are embedded everywhere, and always aware of your presence.

Sept 30

Generations & the 4th Turning

Historian and speaker Neil Howe discussed his work on generations and how they shape history, as well as the twenty year cycle of crisis facing the U.S. He cited different archetypal generations that tend to repeat in the same order, shaping American history since the 17th century. Currently we have: 'G.I.s' (born from 1901 to 1924), 'Silent' (born from 1925 to 1942), 'Boomers' (1943 to 1960), 'Gen X-ers' (1961 to 1981), and Millennials (1982 and beyond). Each of these generations embodies different characteristics that are a product of their time, and what preceded them, he explained.

Each group turns a corner on the generation before them, and Howe has categorized four repeated cycles or "turnings," that each last for around twenty years. We are in the midst of the 4th Turning, a time of enormous public risk and upheaval, said Howe. Among the predictions he and co-author, the late William Strauss made back in 1997 about the 4th Turning:

fiscal crisis
tax rebellion
global terrorism leading to the curtailing of civil liberties
a national strike
Wall St. panic
a new communicable disease with mandatory quarantines
anarchy in Russia, and the rebirth of the Czarist empire.

In the 4th Turning, the Millennials will come to the forefront with their civil service, community building, and group orientation, he noted. To some extent, we've already seen this with the US military, he added.