Poll: Will there be inflation or deflation for the US?
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Deflation or Inflation? When Will the Price of Gold Plummet?
06-29-2010, 11:00 PM,
Question  Deflation or Inflation? When Will the Price of Gold Plummet?
Somethings gotta give. Will it be inflation or deflation that hits the US? Although there is massive printing of fiat the real money supply for the peons is being retracted, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, there will be no liquidity. There are a lot of FRNs being pumped out but they aren't trickling down to the lower sectors of the economy, or maybe not at all only the upper class banks who are holding them back.

When we have no buying power what will become of the dollar will we be forced to change to something else due to lack of funds due to scarcity via bank withholding on loans?

Deflation would be an ideal tool to take the wealth from the populace and we are seeing signs of it. The TARP and bailout money went to pay debt and was not circulated. We have dropping real estate prices in some cities (Detroit) with many homes hitting the floor in pricing. At the same time we have unemployment rising so their is less money being earned. Try getting a business loan or even keeping your current small business line of credit. Goods should be decreasing in cost if this is the case.

The Great Depression in the 30s was because of a 10% annual reduction in the money supply.

The only tactic to combat deflation in this system in this situation since interest rates are at near 0% (for select borrowers like the FRB) would be to print as much money as possible, which is what is being done. Either that or produce more real stuff to increase the GDP through labour and innovation.

In a deflationary situation. Debt will be amplified. The big credit holders are due for a much bigger mountain to climb if this is the case. The US foreign debt / trade deficit to countries like China will also compound in buying power if this occurs which serves the world socialist government agenda.

Gold is a bubble. A lot of its value is held in speculation and faith that it will hold its value

Then again there is a record level of government spending and inflation may hit if the banks or the ultra wealthy loosen their purse strings. I'm trying to weigh the factors and wrap my head around it. Like always the banks hold all the cards and deflation is a much better play than inflation because of record consumer and national debt. Printing money won't stave this off unless it hits the consumer sector. It may go directly to interest payments and to pay down debts. This would have a fine stake in all of the collateral and credit it has printed off. This would do the average citizen no good at all.

So the benefits of scarce currency supply would be as follows:

* Bigger collections on the existing debt
* Strangle the US economy to bring it down to the level of other countries to mitigate it's impact as a world power
* Help prop up China as an economic power, there has been a mass investment shift to India and China in the recent past
* Bring down the gold bubble and collect on the consumer that has bought into this with their savings
* Collect on all the real value by bringing in loans and making the outstanding amount's real value worth more
* Keep the multi-nationals in power making it harder for smaller companies to compete due to lack of liquidity and start-up capital

The travel and border security beef up is designed to keep debt owing citizens in the country (farm) and keep them slaving away in perpetual debt more than to prevent terrorism.

Anyone else care to voice an opinion?
There are no others, there is only us.
06-30-2010, 12:44 AM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation?
The "thing" to do is to dump the monetary fraud, Stop playing the con game. We need a different way of doing "things". We need a system that allows us to be human with each other. Before it can become reality it has to be imagined. Imagine!
An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it.
Mohandas Gandhi

Each of us is put here in this time and this place to personally decide the future of humankind.
Did you think you were put here for something less?
Chief Arvol Looking Horse
06-30-2010, 04:34 AM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation?
Well hell yeah but let's step back from our imagination and discuss whether there will be deflation or inflation in the currency we should be expecting. As much as I want it to fizzle away it persists as long as people place their faith in it and give it value, thus power to influence and motivate no matter how fabricated the systems that 'legitimize' it are.

The repeaters, much of the alt media included (especially those that have sponsors that hock gold), have it backwards if the money/credit tap runs dry.

The recent warning of the monster US currency printing run is in the interest of American banks, individual and corporate debtors that owe amounts of debt in excess of their holdings. I think the derivative market would also laud such action too. It's the net difference in debt owing vs holdings that matters.

Consider that money is just a way of getting real wealth out of the hands of you average working man. The vast majority of people are in debt to the banks and credit card companies, a scarcity of money would benefit the lenders since the money has more value and make it more likely for overzealous consumers to lose their collateral or have their wages garnished. Since US debt and, world debt for that matter, is so enormous, we would have a massive transfer of wealth from those in debt to the banks and give those who have saved or are selectively given access to credit more purchasing power.

From a bank's perspective the only reasons to continue inflation when there is so much debt is if their debt exceeds the money they possess. They have had a large inflationary window and have likely cleared any ridiculous debts, besides they are too big to fail so they can always tap congress for another bailout. Inflation is great for government since it devalues the debt it owes but the government is spending our (and our unborn great-grandchildren's) money. It also favours buyers that are ahead of the labour and goods curve since it take awhile for currency to devalue proportionate to the amount in supply. It also reduces liability for entitlements such as pensions and social security.

The bank has pretty much wiped out the savings of American people with the encouragement to spend and propaganda that we are out of the recession as well as the transfer of a lot of money from cash to gold that is sold as a fiat fractional reserve product and is hyped beyond it's real value.

Another thing to note is the new US bank bill that gives government more control over financial institutions. This would allow easier access to turn the money tap on or off.

All this talk about hyper-inflation could be a set-up. Where is that monster print run going to anyways, government spending, paying down foreign debt? To get the best bang for the buck this print run should have been done in more silently and I think they tried to keep it under wraps or maybe it's a red herring to make non-insiders bite on the hyper-inflation hoax?
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06-30-2010, 05:29 AM, (This post was last modified: 06-30-2010, 05:46 AM by yeti.)
RE: Inflation or Deflation?
Are you talking about the money supply, or what the man on the street's idea of inflation is, which is the Consumer Price Index, or the "inflation rate"?

It's impossible to know, because the economic indicators are fudged, or not even published. They stopped publishing the M3 figures just before the current crisis. Why, we wonder? They constantly change what items are measured on the Consumer Price Index

Is it because they are printing more money, or because the amount of money actually circulating is dropping? I say both.

BTW, I fixed your poll. I don't know what a "Deflatino" is - maybe Italian for a flat tire? LOL

Some links of interest:

Consumer price index
Money Supply
US Federal Reserve ceases to publish M3 index
US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus
Shrinking Money Supply
[Image: randquote.png]
06-30-2010, 07:26 PM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation?
Thanks yeti - happy fingers got carried away and I couldn't edit the poll. Deflatino (chuckle)

I did a mini-report on that a few years back when looking into cumulative taxation factoring in total inflation. Wikipedia hasn't updated the chart since 2007. But I dug up the raw data from FRB publications.

[Image: 620px-Components_of_the_United_States_mo...y2.svg.png]

If anyone's looking to do some research with some unaudited numbers here's a few sources.

Aggregate Reserves Of Depository Institutions And The Monetary Base

In the past year, extrapolating from the figures, it appears as if the total money supply has increased by ~19% from $1.68 Trillion to $2 Trillion with federal reserve loans steadily declining and getting pinched off from $525 Billion to $71 Billion and $403B of term auction credit has been discontinued and now sits at zero.

Consumer Credit

Even though the M1 and M2 indicators are rocketing up. Total Consumer credit is steady at ~$2.4T. But there has been a noticeable shift from revolving credit to non-revolving credit meaning lines of credit are being cancelled. Many small businesses operate on revolving credit lines.

Table 6 - Not Seasonally Adjusted Components of Non-M1 M2
This one is interesting since it classifies time deposits and savings as non-m1 m2 and is valued at $7 Trillion! Institutional money funds are dropping steadily, losing 28% of their value since Jan 2009, $2.5T to $1.8T. Of the figures in this chart their seems to be a pronounced $1T or 18% shift of Non-M1 M2 to commercial bank savings.

M1 & M2 Data


We can see the total money supply is going up as it always has but it is being shifted around so more loans are going on credit cards rather than lines of credit, the FRB is loaning much much less to federal banks so the banks have less to loan to your average Joe American. The FRB is printing more and sitting on it protecting against deflation but this may not translate to the consumer / retail average person if it is not circulated to them manufacturing poverty in their virtual monetary system.
There are no others, there is only us.
06-30-2010, 09:07 PM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation?
(06-30-2010, 05:29 AM)yeti Wrote: BTW, I fixed your poll. I don't know what a "Deflatino" is - maybe Italian for a flat tire? LOL

I thought it was a hard of hearing Hispanic
07-09-2010, 10:44 AM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation?
Even with the wads of greenbacks being churned out corporations are not spending, paying off their debts*, consumers are broke / unemployed, credit has been retracted and are not spending.

Quote:US Money Supply Plunges at 1930’s Pace and Housing Index Dives
June 28, 2010

The stock of money fell from $14.2 trillion to $13.9 trillion in the three months to April, amounting to an annual rate of contraction of 9.6pc. The assets of institutional money market funds fell at a 37pc rate, the sharpest drop ever.

"The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly," he said.
Full article on this thread http://concen.org/forum/showthread.php?tid=33726 (h/t h3rm35)

The interest rates are zero. When interest rates went up in the early 80s to ~20% gold crashed hard. Don't get sucked in by the experts. The Saudis listened to their 'insiders' in the 80s and lost 80% of their wealth when gold crashed. The IMF is was dumping its gold late last year, that should serve as an indicator.

Yes, India and China bought a bunch but that's the plan. They'll get hit too, crash their central banks and force a world currency, in a step or three and suck out their wealth. It's the corporations not the countries that these bankers are interested in. Although it looks like the bankers are eyeing and setting up in India, Australia and China as their geopolitical power base. To take Russia down a notch they'll fuck with the oil market, their main export.

Everyone that's in the gold biz on all these radio stations are piping about $3000-$6000 gold because they are repeating what their sponsors that are dumping it are telling them. If they were really convinced it was going to go up that much why would they sell it to you? I know this is a cliche but you can't eat gold and there is a manufactured food shortage 'round the bend, thanks Monsanto / FDA. A gold downturn may initially be hedged by the fractional selling that was busted lately and the tungsten scandal but that may serve to get people out of the paper gold and storage market which would decrease the inflated demand (you hear the plugs almost every day) and force holders to lose confidence in the commodity. Gold can be manipulated and you can bank on the fact the market will get flooded when times are desperate to dispel the hope of gold trading to replace currency. The UK Military have been bribing the Taliban with bags of gold starting in November when it was at $1225 / oz. I've heard a lot of "gold will hold during a deflation" but they are lying out their ass. Once the inflated confidence is burst there is no turning back.

Here's an indicator that we're headed to a deflationary trend. Pay off your debts. The prisons are being cleared to make way for debtors. The buying power will be further decreased with increased taxation and fees. Money is going to get much more difficult to earn soon enough if this is not.

Quote:Core Inflation (PCE PI)
Economic indicator

Current reading and trend (as of 4/30/2010)

* PCE PI dropped to 1.2% in April and is still considerably lower than the pre-crisis peak of 2.7%.
* Core inflation remains within 0.1% of its lowest recorded value of 1.1% in September 2001.

What is it?

* The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE PI) measures the average price increase for American consumers on an annualized basis. It excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile from month-to-month. It also allows for consumer substitution of more expensive goods for cheaper goods, which the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not. It is the preferred lagging inflation measure of the Federal Reserve.

Why is it important?

* Core inflation was added during the September 15, 2009 update, because we believe it is a key economic issue, especially when coming out of a recession.
* The core PCE PI indicates how prices have changed from month-to-month.
* A change in inflation indicates a change in ability to consume and in the real return to investments.
* High inflation can have a detrimental impact on investment.
* Deflation (<0%) can cause spending to dry up.
* This metric bears watching as the Federal Reserve infuses money into the economy.

How do we interpret it?

* An increase in the inflation rate generally indicates that the rate of price increases has picked up.
* A decrease in the inflation rate means the rate of price increases has slowed down.

Typical historical range

* 90% of month-end readings for the core PCE PI change have ranged from 1.2% to 6.8%.

Check the graph at the link or within the PDF attachment, it is quite indicative.

I don't usually get predictive but I've done my research. Do your own and draw your own conclusions on the deal. If they wanted to give liquidity to the average citizen and small businesses to stimulate growth they would have done so already. They can't print too much currency or foreign banks will dump the dollar. A massive upswing in production, which they'll probably try by jumping into a war, is the only thing that will keep this manipulated usurious system on life support anymore.

Once the stock / derivative bubble bursts mass consolidation of banks and corporations will take place along with mass foreclosures and emergency asset freezes to prevent banks runs. You can bet they'll blame the Chinese. This may be as soon if there is a massive evacuation of the southeast coast.

* Read it in a Financial Times report, not sure which one. I can't seem to find any recent figures on corporate debt. Please let me know if you find anything.

Gold may very well be a bubble and manipulated bythose who control it. Who controls it? The banks.

gold market manipulation: despite the media lock-down, the word is getting out.

Maybe real gold and silver that you can hold in your hand but paper gold or stored gold is volitaile but even that is manipulated because of the concentration of ownership and the dictated price by the few. In Saudi Arabia the wealthy were encouraged and heavily vested in gold. Then the market crashed and they got ~20% of their initial investment value back.

the market is rife with manipulation like with any other commodity but gold has a bubble built up by a physiological need so the value is ahead of the curve IMO. There is a indiscernible amount of tungsten on the market so be sure to factor that in.

Remember when the Saudis were convinced to buy gold by their "impartial" investment advisors, they bought it by the truckload. Then, almost overnight, gold made a steady drop. The oil price dropped coincidentally at the same time gold dropped, they were forced to sell their gold for ~20% of what they paid. Consequently their wealth was sucked away. Another example citing gold 's volatility was when it was illegal in the US to own any gold and was repossessed by the state, don't think that cannot happen again.

There is always the risk of some elitist ploy of sitting on a giant vein of gold or maybe they have discovered a way to transmute elements in a cost effective manner. I really would put nothing past those schemers.

For a truly good and safe investment. Get self sustainable for the long term if you have some liquidity now. Sooner rather than later. Invest in hydroponic equipment, land with rich soil, build a well, get a good source of energy and, most importantly, live in a good community - build a solid group of friends. Don't depend on government / corporations for your essential needs as much as you can bear. Sustainable independence is real wealth. If you only have a few bucks to spread around I'd stock up on some basics like natural native seeds, peanut butter, honey and tools. Anything someone in Haiti wish they had right now is a good start. Some people, especially here, strongly advocate lead over gold as an investment. Useful staples are skyrocketing in price now but the non-essentials (like wide screen TVs) are crashing to rock bottom prices so you'll see those items at garage / barter sales in the future.

That's just my opinion though, consider all options before committing and never put all of your eggs in one basket.

The #1 and most important investment you could is in community and family know your neighbours and pool your skills, assets, security and productivity. The government won't be there for us, we have to be there for eachother. Canned goods and ammo will run out eventually, harness the means of sustainable and defensible production.

The generations have been procrastinating and those values are corrupting us and our children to a point where our community has eroded and been degraded to neighbourhood watch groups that rat their fellow man out for transgressions such as parking infractions and garbage can placement (I just got a $320 ticket to prove it) to the nanny state. The long term solution isn't isolating and hiding in the bushes with peanut butter patting yourself on the back for how insightful and prepared you were while the rest of society is crumbling and you haven't lifted a finger or were fooled into the notion that you were powerless to enact change.

Gold and paper are not wealth, they are manipulation tools and the sooner people realize that true richness is freeing yourself from oppressive systems and uniting with friends, community and family to build something, the better off all of us will be.

Attached Files
.pdf   Economic_Indicators.pdf (Size: 1.73 MB / Downloads: 63)
There are no others, there is only us.
07-09-2010, 12:02 PM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation?
Check this piece of synchronous news out that should hurt the gold market especially if it was speculating heavily on a Chinese bite on gold.

Quote:China won’t dump dollar for gold
Published on: July 09, 2010 at 16:00

BEIJING (Commodity Online): If bullion investors thought the recent move by China to free yuan from dollar will help gold in a big way, think again. China seems to be not much interested in dumping gold forever, even though Beijing is ready to give flexibility to yuan.

In a recent statement, China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which administers China’s $2.4 trillion in reserves, said it would not use its foreign exchange reserves as an atomic weapon against investment targets.

The statement is a declaration of confidence in the US dollar; it is also a grudging acceptance of the limits of its bluster last year, when it stoked fears of a dollar collapse by feeding ill-informed market speculation that it would dump its huge holdings of US government debt.

It is hard to construct a reassuring statement around the words atomic weapon, but that is exactly what China’s SAFE did. SAFE also made its clearest articulations to date on why it would be difficult for China to diversify its foreign exchange reserves meaningfully by buying gold.

Gold is globally recognised as a store of value and can be used for urgent payment, but there are some limits to investing in gold, and it cannot become a main channel for investing our foreign exchange reserves, the statement noted.

It pointed out that the gold market was limited and gold prices were very volatile. Additionally, SAFE noted, gold investments don’t generate returns, and in fact, investors have to bear costs —- on storage, transportation and insurance. Looking back at its performance over the past 30 years, the risk-return balance of gold is not very good… Gold can be a hedge against inflation, but quite a few other assets can too.

The SAFE said buying gold would not help very much in diversifying China’s foreign exchange reserves. China had increased its gold reserve by more than 400 tonnes in the past few years, and its gold reserves now stood at 1,054 tonnes. “Even if we double the amount, it can only diversify about $30-40 billion of China’s foreign exchange reserves,” it noted. Even then, the proportion of gold reserves in China’s forex reserves would increase by only one or two percentage points, it observed.

China is in fact diversifying its foreign exchange reserves at the margin —- into a very surprising avenue. There has been a very clear pick-up in China’s purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) so far this year. China has bought net $5.8 billion of JGBs so far this year, including some $2.2 billion purchased in April alone.

This is an astounding turnaround from the net selling of $0.9 billion in 2009 and net purchases of $0.25 billion in 2008.

Probably in reaction to this.

Quote:Central banks’ gold with BIS?
Published on: July 07, 2010 at 16:30

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online): When Reserve Bank of India bought 200 tonnes of International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold in November last year, the bullion market received one of the biggest boosts ever and the gold prices soared in the subsequent weeks to new record heights. Reason for this was that all central banks across the globe have been increasing their gold holdings fearing the recession looming large over the world.

But, things have changed again. Now it has come to the light that several central banks, which had increased their gold reserves, have pawned their gold with Bank for International Settlements at a record rate, taking advantage of the precious metal’s historically high value to raise cash.

It is not clear whether India’s Reserve Bank has pawned its gold with the BIS but many banks have already done it.

According to reports appeared in Wall Street Journal and Financial Express, a report released last week by the BIS shows the international agency has taken 349 tonnes of gold since December — allowing central banks to raise a record $14 billion.

The number surprised the market, which had assumed most central banks had retained their holdings of gold. Instead, the BIS data show that they have been entering these gold swaps — exchanging their gold with the BIS in return for cash, agreeing to repurchase the gold at a later date.

The RBI also may have pawned its gold for cash as it has become a normal practice this year.

The increase in the use of gold swaps is particularly surprising because central banks have rarely used them for decades, and the amount of gold at the BIS has remained stable for years.

Central banks of developed countries have relatively easy access to capital and capital markets, while emerging countries have generally been increasing their foreign reserves.

While the use of swaps has no practical implications for the gold market, the report helped weigh on gold prices, which have already come under pressure since reaching a peak last month.

The prospect that the gold isn’t locked up in central bank vaults as investors thought — and that it may, in an extreme case, be seized and sold on the open market by the BIS — gave some investors pause.

The BIS report could change investors’ perception of gold as an asset to protect against the impact of global sovereign-debt woes.

Originally sovereign financial troubles were taken as unambiguously bullish. But some are now rethinking this if the gold that sovereigns hold has been pledged as collateral to someone else who has more ability to liquidate those holdings.

If the central bank that lent the gold is for some reason unable to make good on the loan, the BIS could opt to sell the gold in order to get its money back, which would amount to flooding the market with an unexpected boost to the global supply.

The BIS annual report covers the 12-month period through March. April data show that an additional 32 tonnes of gold were put up as collateral that month, suggesting further loans were taken out with the BIS.

At this rate, the BIS holdings represent the biggest gold swap in history.

Central banks probably chose to swap gold for cash with the BIS — which is known as the central bank for central banks — because it is less visible to the market and probably cheaper than a syndicated loan from commercial banks.

Gold is often regarded as a protection against inflation and is thought to benefit from the inflationary impact of governments’ economic stimulus packages. It has also been used as a haven against another financial meltdown.

The news of the swaps comes as the World Gold Council is trying to persuade central banks to buy more gold. The group sent a 28-page report to more than 800 central bankers and fiscal policy makers around the world, laying out the argument for increasing their bullion holdings.

Many central banks in rapidly growing countries have less than 2% of their reserves in gold, including China, Brazil, South Korea and Malaysia. By contrast, the US has 72.8% of its reserves in gold.

Many developing countries are reluctant to increase their gold holdings significantly. Gold’s volatility and its inability to generate income have long been cited as reason why central banks don't want to enhance their gold holdings. Countries also fear that it could become difficult to liquidate their holdings in a pinch.

Gold bubble over.
There are no others, there is only us.
07-11-2010, 01:27 PM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation? Gold set to Decline?

This is a graph of gold prices in 2010 dollars. According to all of the experts it should rise and fall with inflation and acts as insurance against it. This is clearly not the case especially according to the fluctuations in the past 40 years.

Like everything else it is subject to supply and demand, real and artificial scarcity, is manipulated by emotion such as fear, reacts to trendiness and is based on emotion such as faith etc. The price of gold goes wherever the manipulators want it to go. So you need to ask who benefits if it crashes and if it goes up?

Hopefully this paint a picture. To all those history buffs - can we add anything else of note that may have factored into these fluctuations?
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07-11-2010, 01:48 PM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation? Gold set to Decline?
the gold bubble isn't going to burst until the world economy settles down. It may get "pawned" so to speak, and physical gold may get consolidated, it'll level off as people and institutions finish switching over the full (larger than previous) percentage of their hedge into it. the worst I can see is a gradual decline, at least until there's a general mellowing of the fear about the economy in general. What else can people use as a hedge? The only thing that COULD burst it in this environment, aside from banks deciding to forgive debts, would be a major economy deciding to go off fiat and back their currency with it... then everyone would swarm to that currency.

In the case of gold, the price is certainly manipulated somewhat, but the most effective thing a lot of these MOTU can do is generate scary press against investing in it.

[Image: conspiracy_theory.jpg]
07-11-2010, 02:40 PM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation? Gold set to Decline?
Worst case scenario it gets confiscated by the government as it was before. To pay off the debt or something ludicrous. In terms of valuation it could go to $600 in 2010 dollars but that's JMO too. I see a rise in interest and a deflation trend which doesn't favour it's price and confidence is at an all time high since it's been trumpeted up for the past 5+ years and China is not buying in, central banks are showing the first signs of dumping it. It probably won't go down until the maximum concentration of it is in the hands of common folk (which is usually small by comparison) but it's more about nations they want to take down a few notches to bring them all down to an equal level in their planned socialist model.

As of June 2010 The US holds 75% of it's reserves in gold. Germany, Italy and France are also in the top 10 holders and have more than 65% of their reserves vested in gold. China, India, Japan, and Russia have less than 10% in gold. Rounding out the top 10 economies in the world we have the Swiss and the Danes sitting at 24% and 55% respectively.

See attached document for details on all countries. The BIS is listed as having 120 tonnes but this has since quadrupled with the recent central dump of 349 tonnes just uncovered in July. So which countries did it come from? Is this data reliable? Is their a hidden stash or vein somewhere? Is there an alchemical process available to some that can turn lead to gold? Will there be some push to get a world gold backed currency? There are a lot of unanswered questions. All I know is that I wouldn't personally stake my future on a piece of shiny metal that I can't eat, can use for much of anything and is routinely confiscated and manipulated by people who think they own the world.

.pdf   World.Gold.2010.06.pdf (Size: 20.25 KB / Downloads: 73)
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07-11-2010, 03:19 PM, (This post was last modified: 07-11-2010, 03:54 PM by h3rm35.)
RE: Inflation or Deflation? Gold set to Decline?
First off, I certainly wasn't handing out investment advice. I wouldn't stake my savings on it either... much better to buy tools, good durable clothing, land, and seeds.

secondly, "China is not buying in, central banks are showing the first signs of dumping it." is probably based on press created Goldman Sachs et al market manipulation and propaganda as well as Chinese financial gamesmanship. China is most certainly intent on buying in. they want gold, no matter what they say, they just don't want to buy it at its current price, and they don't want to devalue the dollar too much or they won't be able to buy it. They want to buy gold without the dollar going down... When India bought it's 200 tonnes (out of what I believe was a total of either 400 or 600 being offered by the IMF,) China had offered to buy more than that a lower price and was waiting for a response when India came in and snagged it, leaving less total than they had wanted, and left them in a market that already had a lot less supply than there was demand (sorry I don't have a link to back that up, but I remember it well.) By saying, (as the biggest prospective buyers) they don't want it, it brings the price lower, which is exactly what they want.

Add to that the fact that less than a month ago, a little noticed report out of the UN said that they should ditch the dollar as the world reserve currency and the fact that the US treasury and the Fed (which includes JPMC, GS, and Citigroup, among others,) have been pulling out all the stops to sink it, or at least slow down its meteoric rising and it's still going up, I think it's pretty safe to say that it's got some more climbing to do. Gold will not sink until the economy gets better (how could it? Hedging against a terrible economy is what what gold's for!), and the economy's not going to get better any time soon.
It may get stolen from you by government or you may not be able to get any, due to confiscations (which would only make it worth more,) but my guess is gold will go down drastically in value only when the whole system goes down in flames.

trust me - I don't want to think that airheads like AJ and Beck are selling a product that makes sense, but in this case I think they are...

edit again: The BIS was recently caught (along with the LBMA within the last couple months) either not having as much gold as it said it did, or was caught up in the counterfeit gold bar fiasco - I don't remember which. Once again, these would only raise its value.

one more time:
"it's more about nations they want to take down a few notches to bring them all down to an equal level in their planned socialist model."

I wouldn't call it socialist, I'd call it fascist.
[Image: conspiracy_theory.jpg]
07-11-2010, 04:08 PM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation? Gold set to Decline?
Quote:The BIS was recently caught (along with the LBMA within the last couple months) either not having as much gold as it said it did, or was caught up in the counterfeit gold bar fiasco - I don't remember which. Once again, these would only raise its value.
I addressed that earlier and factored it in as something that would make the paper holders lose faith and dump bursting the bubble. It is overvalued according to the last graph which is adjusted to 2010 dollars. It was stored gold that took almost a 100 to 1 hit. Maybe I didn't give it enough weighting though, time will tell. I also mentioned the tungsten scam. But there was the Canadian gold scam too of $80 Million or so but I suppose that is negligible in the larger scheme.

Quote:I wouldn't call it socialist, I'd call it fascist.
agreed, fascist it is.

I just know there are at least a few people on this site that are heavily into gold so that may not have looked at it from a different perspective and I'd like them to have all the information possible to make an informed decision. I've seen a pretty one sided "buy buy buy!" coming from the MSM and the alt media that are endowed with a lot of gold sponsors. It just seemed pretty imbalanced.

Remember when housing had nowhere to go but up, up and up some more? Did anyone warn of a housing crash while prices were still going up, before it was obvious? How about the dot com bubble?

.. really I'm asking I'd like to know because they would be good people to listen to for advice on this one now.
There are no others, there is only us.
07-11-2010, 04:49 PM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation? Gold set to Decline?
Quote:Did anyone warn of a housing crash while prices were still going up, before it was obvious?
It depends on when you consider it obvious... lot's of people were screaming about it before it was immanent. I knew it was going to burst in early - mid 2006 (I think, and that's when I considered economics boring as hell, so others must have talked about it before then. That's because I've really only been reading alternative media since 2005, (save for Kieth Olberman and that was only because it was so much fun to hear him slamming the chimp and other idiot neocons. Haven't watched him much since Obama.)

I wouldn't be able to tell you the prognosticators names though - I smoked a lot more pot back then. I think it was late in 2006 when I pushed my old forum to add an economics sub-forum because I knew the shit was going to hit the fan, but I'd heard the cries for months prior to that. The difference is there's no ARMs in the gold market, and there was no burst in innovation that petered out like in the .com days. I will give you that the number in which gold is priced may fall due to deflation, but it's relative value will remain on the rise. I can't deny deflation. If I did, it would mean I'm not paying attention, and I am.
[Image: conspiracy_theory.jpg]
07-11-2010, 05:55 PM,
RE: Inflation or Deflation? Gold set to Decline?
I'm not a lone voice in the wilderness, although I came to my own conclusions I later checked out any bad news on gold. I found a radical on MSNBC Tom O'Brien who seems to be a lone voice in the wilderness. In this video they give him a share of the last 1:20 of split screen about a month ago and sees a $200 drop.

MSNBC Gold In or Out?

He's got radio show too. I'll have to listen more on what he has to say.

The Tom O'Brien Show

Since his prediction it's dropped $50 as of today despite a recent uptick over the past few days. Psychologically the best way to do this is to gently rock the gold boat down, with slight losses with some nice upswings here and there to keep everyone aboard the sinking ship. A game they like to play with the stock market and at the blackjack table. It's all the same animal IMO.

That said. I really had to dig for someone to go against the status quo of buy buy buy. But some central banks have been going against that mantra, so ya gotta wonder.

I only started heavy into alt news and dusty books less than a year ago with only a few shows under my belt. So what do I know eh? Like I said, just putting all the facts on the table to consume and digest as you will.

A lot depends on what happens with the recent BIS acquisitions and the IMF gold holdings and if China stands pat on keeping a low (relative to foreign debt holding) supply.

Like you and I said, bottom line you gotta go with the sustainability goods and set up your seed banks, canning equipment, good neighbours, some skinning knives, lots of propane and batteries and all that before you think of gambling on gold or whatever else. I'm just a tad obsessive and find this a bit fascinating. I just have $500 in gold anyways, maybe half that in silver so it don't make much difference to me either way.
There are no others, there is only us.

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