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Atmospheric Aerosols: Another Major IPCC Omission
04-05-2010, 10:06 PM,
#1
Atmospheric Aerosols: Another Major IPCC Omission
Quote:Atmospheric Aerosols: Another Major IPCC Omission
Aersols When It Suits Them
By Dr. Tim Ball Monday, April 5, 2010

A half - truth is a whole lie.” Jewish proverb

Political whitewash of corrupted climate science of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is in full swing. It illustrates the complete political nature of the issue. Indeed, the Chairman of the British Parliament investigating Phil Jones and the CRU specifically said they were not going to look at the science. If they had they would see the extensive and outrageous scientific errors, manipulations of data and omissions of large areas of the complexity that is the weather. These problems are what created the denial of information for which Jones was absolved. In many cases there is little choice because the data is not available and the mechanisms not understood, but that’s not the story given the public.

What’s In The Atmosphere?

The Hubble telescope showed a very different universe from beyond the haziness of the atmosphere. The difference illustrates the impact of the atmosphere on light and therefore energy passing through. Changes in the constituency of the atmosphere beyond the greenhouse gases are important to global weather and climate, yet little understood and essentially overlooked.

The role of aerosols, defined as minute particles suspended in the atmosphere, is one example. They modify atmospheric transparency to incoming and outgoing radiation. Amount of impact varies as volumes, type of material and altitudes change. IPCC Reports have a section on Atmospheric Aerosols but only consider human contributions. Their work is meaningless because we don’t know the natural sources, amounts or variability, so it is impossible to determine the human portion.

Figure 1 shows IPCC estimated atmospheric energy flows. None of the numbers come from actual measurements and other people propose different values and patterns of flow for each segment. They’re static averages on a rotating dynamic planet with important factors left out, such as the shape of the atmosphere, the atmospheric mass, and water vapor in the atmosphere among other things.

   
Figure 1: IPCC Estimated Global Mean Energy Budget in Wm-2
Source: Kiehl; and Trenberth (1997) used in Fourth Assessment Report (FAR)

Important values related to aerosol are the total “Incoming Solar Radiation” (342 Wm-2), the 67 Wm-2 “Absorbed by the Atmosphere,” and 77 Wm-2 “Reflected by Clouds, Aerosols and Atmosphere” The latter is a strange concoction that underscores the crude nature of the knowledge.

In an attempt to deal with the problem the http://www.asp.bnl.gov/” title=“US Atmospheric Science Program”>US Atmospheric Science Program (ASP) “…has as its long-term goal developing comprehensive understanding of the atmospheric processes that control the transport, transformation, and fate of energy related trace chemicals and particulate matter. The current focus of the program is aerosol radiative forcing of climate: aerosol formation and evolution and aerosol properties that affect direct and indirect influences on climate and climate change. “

As NASA scientist Mian Chan says, “The influence of aerosols on climate is not yet adequately taken into account in our computer predictions of climate.” “An improved representation of aerosols in climate models is essential to more accurately predict the climate changes.” These programs raise concerns about experiments with government controlling weather and combines with debates about “chemtrails” and aircraft condensation trails.
Aersols When It Suits Them

In attempts to counteract the temperature decrease from 1940 to 1970 while CO2 from human sources increased proponents of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) claimed it was due to human addition of sulfate aerosols. James Hansen of NASA GISS says, “Over the course of the twentieth century, Hansen and other climate scientists estimate aerosols may have offset global warming by as much as 50 percent by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface. Scientists call this phenomenon “global dimming,” although the change was too gradual and too slight to be perceived by the human eye.” All this is typical Hansen speculation designed to attribute every problem to human activity. It is impossible to determine the cause when you don’t know how volcanic or any other natural sources of aerosols vary. We know these variations and errors of measurements far exceed the total human inputs.

Three main natural sources include volcanic dust, particles of soil, and salt particles. The last two are the primary particles around which water vapor condenses to form water droplets that constitute clouds. All aerosols either reflect solar energy back to space (albedo), absorb solar energy directly to heat the atmosphere, absorb and reradiate heat coming from the ground, or all three.

Volcanoes

Hubert Lamb, founder of the CRU, identified a major part of the aerosol problem in 1970 when he created the Dust Veil Index (DVI) designed to quantify the impact of volcanic dust on the atmospheric energy balance. Effects of the volcanic dust and all other atmospheric material are a major unresolved problem. We know some volcanic eruptions cause cooling. Generally these erupt near the Equator and eject material with high sulfur content into the Stratosphere. Eruptions like Tambora in 1815, Krakatoa in 1883, and Pinatubo in 1991 all met these conditions and were followed by distinct, albeit it brief, cooling. Other volcanoes have regional impacts like Laki in Iceland that began erupting in 1783 and continued over the next several months. Benjamin Franklin witnessed the eruption as he was sailing to France and predicted the negative impact on agriculture that presaged the French Revolution. All volcanoes are constantly putting aerosols into the atmosphere.

Soil

Soil particles in the atmosphere come from many sources including deserts and are transported considerable distances. Clay is the smallest soil particle and easily remains in suspension. Some larger particles are picked up but most fall or are washed out very quickly. Particles, which can be solid or liquid, range upward from 0.01 microns and remain in suspension for a very long time. It takes a million water droplets to form one moderate sized raindrop and with absolutely calm air it would take 12 hours to fall 300 meters.

A few years ago, people in southern England were concerned about yellow dust covering everything only to learn it was blown in from the Sahara desert. Similarly, locusts appeared alive in the Caribbean following a plague in North Africa. Studies we did with high volume soil samplers in Winnipeg showed how the amount and type of material varied considerably with season and wind direction. Wind is another forgotten variable in the entire field of climatology. Besides variation in the amount of material picked up into the atmosphere, consider how rates of evaporation vary, but that is yet another major flaw in the CRU/IPCC climate science.

The political whitewash will continue because too many careers and too much money is involved. At some point the science will become a factor as people begin to understand how much is wrong. Continuing colder weather will underscore the problem as all the factors the CRU/IPCC people ignore take over. Hopefully, the economy is not destroyed using CO2 and global warming or climate change as the excuse.
http://digg.com/environment/Atmospheric_Aerosols_Another_Major_IPCC_Omission
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/21674

Note that volcanoes effects are not great at this time but are outright ignored by IPCC reports. The entire study was limited in scope to man-made anthropogenic global warming (AGW) ignoring all other contributing factors in a complex climate system. Notable exclusions include rotting biomass (~320 GT / year*), The oceans, soil, volcanoes, clouds (water vapour), aerosols and the giant nuclear furnace we commonly call the sun.

*humans and their toys create 12 to 28 GT each year depending on what literature you have in front of you. 30% of this is absorbed immediately and most of it is taken in and stored / used by the ecosystem one way or another in systems such as plant respiration.

-- and these were conveniently denied for IPCC submission and ignored too:

500 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of "Man-Made" Global Warming
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html
There are no others, there is only us.
http://FastTadpole.com/
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04-06-2010, 01:03 AM,
#2
RE: Atmospheric Aerosols: Another Major IPCC Omission
You've got to love those so called scientists, they don't see the chemtrails being sprayed on a 24/7 basis. I guess they don't spray in virtual reality.
An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it.
Mohandas Gandhi


Each of us is put here in this time and this place to personally decide the future of humankind.
Did you think you were put here for something less?
Chief Arvol Looking Horse
Reply
10-10-2010, 12:55 AM,
#3
RE: Atmospheric Aerosols: Another Major IPCC Omission
(04-06-2010, 01:03 AM)icosaface Wrote: You've got to love those so called scientists, they don't see the chemtrails being sprayed on a 24/7 basis. I guess they don't spray in virtual reality.
What is an AEROSOL?
How much of the aerosol load of the atmosphere is NATURAL?
Of the anthropogenic proportion, how much is intentional?
What is supersaturation?
Why are supersaturated layers found in the stratosphere?
What is the reason why they remain that way?
Do you know any "so-called" science?
Sure you do.
So answer the above questions.

Reply
10-10-2010, 02:59 AM,
#4
RE: Atmospheric Aerosols: Another Major IPCC Omission
Yeah, I know the "so called" science that you upchuck into the web jazzroc. I am interested in what Fast T thinks. I'm not interested in the script you offer for evaluation.
An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it.
Mohandas Gandhi


Each of us is put here in this time and this place to personally decide the future of humankind.
Did you think you were put here for something less?
Chief Arvol Looking Horse
Reply
05-25-2011, 07:29 PM, (This post was last modified: 05-25-2011, 08:37 PM by JazzRoc.)
#5
RE: Atmospheric Aerosols: Another Major IPCC Omission
(04-05-2010, 10:06 PM)FastTadpole Wrote: A half - truth is a whole lie.” Jewish proverb
Which you demonstrate.

Quote:the data is not available
The data IS available.

Quote:the mechanisms not understood
The mechanisms ARE understood.

Quote:Changes in the constituency of the atmosphere beyond the greenhouse gases are important to global weather and climate, yet little understood and essentially overlooked
They are increasingly-well understood, and usually estimated, using computational feedback.

Quote:The role of aerosols, defined as minute particles suspended in the atmosphere, is one example. They modify atmospheric transparency to incoming and outgoing radiation. Amount of impact varies as volumes, type of material and altitudes change. IPCC Reports have a section on atmospheric aerosols but only consider human contributions
Aerosols have always been part of earth's atmosphere. 11% of atmospheric aerosols are in some way attributable to Man, 4% to active vulcanism, the remaining 85% of all aerosols are natural (salt crystals from the sea, soot, and partially unburnt hydrocarbons from forest fires) or biological (methyl sulfide and other hydrocarbons from animal digestion, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition).

Quote:Their work is meaningless because we don’t know the natural sources, amounts or variability, so it is impossible to determine the human portion
Satellites survey the globe from above. Everything can be measured. It IS possible to determine the human portion.

Quote:None of the numbers come from actual measurements and other people propose different values and patterns of flow for each segment.
Some disagreement over methods and results is quite normal in science. It never materially affects advances in understanding.

Quote:They’re static averages on a rotating dynamic planet with important factors left out, such as the shape of the atmosphere, the atmospheric mass, and water vapor in the atmosphere among other things.
Sometimes such factors may be left out, other times left in: where appropriate.
"Rotating dynamic" displays are difficult to manage. Scientists have learned to interpret FIXED data in BOOKS and PAPERS.

Quote:“Incoming Solar Radiation” (342 Wm-2), the 67 Wm-2 “Absorbed by the Atmosphere,” and 77 Wm-2 “Reflected by Clouds, Aerosols and Atmosphere” The latter is a strange concoction that underscores the crude nature of the knowledge.
Dunno about that. It seems logical to me... Smile

Quote:The current focus of the program is
MEASURING
Quote:aerosol radiative forcing of climate: aerosol formation and evolution and aerosol properties that affect direct and indirect influences on climate and climate change
Note the word. Measuring.

Quote:These programs raise concerns about experiments
Measuring experiments?

Quote:It is impossible to determine the cause when you don’t know how volcanic or any other natural sources of aerosols vary.
Using satellites you MEASURE what is happening, then it IS possible to determine the cause.

Quote:We know these variations and errors of measurements far exceed the total human inputs.
Then you'd better let us know how you KNOW what you know.

Quote:Three main natural sources include volcanic dust, particles of soil, and salt particles
And smoke, and methyl sulfide...

Quote:The last two are the primary particles around which water vapor condenses to form water droplets that constitute clouds
If not the smoke and methyl sulfide.

Quote:All
ACTIVE
Quote:volcanoes are constantly putting aerosols into the atmosphere
That's FIFTEEN HUNDRED on land and TEN TIMES that number sub-ocean.

Quote:Soil particles in the atmosphere come from many sources including deserts and are transported considerable distances. Clay is the smallest soil particle and easily remains in suspension
And it's made of ALUMINUM SILICATE.

Quote:Wind is another forgotten variable in the entire field of climatology
By you, maybe.

Quote:yet another major flaw in the CRU/IPCC climate science
All science is FLAWED. It's STILL EFFECTIVE.

Quote:political
HOG
Quote:wash
is what this article is.

Quote:Note that volcanoes effects are not great at this time but are outright ignored by IPCC reports.
I thought you said earlier these effects were unknown. Yes, YOU DID. Explain yourself.

Quote:The entire study was limited in scope to man-made anthropogenic global warming (AGW) ignoring all other contributing factors in a complex climate system.
This claim of "ignoring" is so much stuff-and-nonsense. EVERYONE's aware of it. There's not much use worrying about the bit you cannot change if necessary.

Quote:Notable exclusions include rotting biomass (~320 GT / year*), The oceans, soil, volcanoes, clouds (water vapor), aerosols and the giant nuclear furnace we commonly call the sun.
Yeah, like this. Are these figures precise enough for you? Did you measure them for yourself, using satellites?

Quote:humans and their toys create 12 to 28 GT each year depending on what literature you have in front of you. 30% of this is absorbed immediately and most of it is taken in and stored / used by the ecosystem one way or another in systems such as plant respiration.
You appear to be talking about CO2 and NOT aerosols.

Quote:these were conveniently denied for IPCC submission
They have taste, you gotta give'em that...


(10-10-2010, 02:59 AM)icosaface Wrote: Yeah, I know the "so called" science that you upchuck into the web jazzroc. I am interested in what Fast T thinks. I'm not interested in the script you offer for evaluation.
Science papers on the web are only "so-called" "so-called" by YOU.

This one, for instance:

[Image: aerohist3.jpg]

Satellite remote sensing reveals regional tropospheric aerosol trends

Michael I. Mishchenko, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025
Igor V. Geogdzhayev, Columbia University and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 mmishchenko@giss.nasa.gov

Abstract
The Global Aerosol Climatology Project data product based on analyses of channel 1 and 2 AVHRR radiances shows significant regional changes in the retrieved optical thickness of tropospheric aerosols which had occurred between the volcano-free periods 1988–91 and 2002–05. These trends appear to be generally plausible, are consistent with extensive sets of long-term ground-based observations throughout the world, and may increase the trustworthiness of the recently identified downward trend in the global tropospheric aerosol load.

Discussion
Not being experts in the subject area of aerosol production, processing, and transport, we may not be able to explain or evaluate the plausibility of all the features of the aerosol global distribution and its seasonal and decadal variability supposedly revealed by Figs. 2–7. In this respect, Figs. 2–7 are intended to inform the aerosol community at large of new and potentially important information worthy of a detailed critical analysis. The purpose of the following discussion is to provide a limited assessment consistent with our own knowledge and understanding.
The strong AOT decrease over the large Atlantic Ocean area between the equator and 30°N appears to indicate a reduced productivity of the African sources of dust aerosols. This finding is perfectly consistent with the results of [44, 45] indicating that the amount of rain and vegetation in the Sahel has increased significantly since the late 1980s. An alternative or an additional explanation may be that the dust particles have become larger and, as a result, spend less time in the atmosphere. The latter explanation would be consistent with the concurrent decrease of the Ångström exponent in this area, Fig. 7©. An interesting feature of Figs. 3–6 is that the overall seasonal morphology of the dust plume has hardly changed despite the significant decrease in the total amount of dust.
The overall AOT increase along the western coast of Africa from the equator to about 20°S may be explained by intensified biomass burning. We have mentioned, however, that this overall increasing trend appears to be replaced by a decreasing trend during the autumn months, as Fig. 6© indicates. The significant inter-annual variability of the AOT in this region perfectly correlates with expected changes in the number and extent of fires during the local dry and rainy seasons.
The noticeable AOT increase along the southern and south-east coasts of Asia can be the expected result of rapidly growing regional economies coupled with the widespread use of technologies that are not environmentally clean [46–48].
The elevated amounts of aerosols throughout the 40°S–60°S latitudinal belt, Figs. 2(a) and 2(b), correlate almost perfectly with the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) [49]
surface wind speed data, Figs. 8(a) and 8(b). It is well known that increasing wind speed can lead to increased sea-salt aerosol production as well as cause increased ocean surface reflectivity by both making the ocean surface more rough and generating more white caps.
Since the GACP retrieval algorithm is based on a constant wind speed value and a constant diffuse component of the ocean surface reflectance, all of these factors would have the same effect on the GACP-derived AOT, thereby potentially making a part of it artificial. It is interesting that even the long-term AOT increase in this area seen in Fig. 2© may correlate with the contemporaneous wind speed increase revealed by Fig. 8©. Partial cloud contamination of “clear-sky” pixels used for aerosol retrievals is also a constant concern in this cloud-dominated region. Obviously, this remote area of the globe represents a challenging problem in terms of aerosol retrievals; the solution of this problem may require much more capable satellite instruments such as the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor [51] or even a combination of passive and active sensors.
The significant long-term AOT decrease over much of Europe is quite consistent with the supposed reversal from increasing to decreasing anthropogenic sulfur and black carbon emissions owing to the enactment of clean air legislation in many countries [46, 47, 52]. The enactment of similar legislation in the USA may have led to a similar decrease of AOT over much of the US territory [53] not necessarily revealed by the GACP data. The downfall of the local economies throughout the territory of the former Soviet Union had also resulted in a dramatic and well documented decrease of aerosol emissions and AOT [23, 54–56]. These three factors, coupled with long-range aerosol transport, may have had a significant global impact, potentially causing much of the long-term AOT trend revealed by Fig. 1.

Conclusion
Based on the above limited discussion, we conclude that the long-term regional AOT trends revealed by Figs. 2–6 appear to be generally plausible. They are qualitatively consistent with both the results of extensive ground-based observations [23, 54–57] and the recent emission inventory assessments [46–48, 52]. To the extent that radiance calibration remains to be a potentially significant source of uncertainty, our regional results cannot prove unequivocally the existence of the relatively weak downward trend in the global and hemispherical AOT averages. However, their plausibility appears to increase the trustworthiness of the overall trend. An additional, albeit indirect, confirmation of the overall decreasing tendency in AOT comes from the widespread contemporaneous reversal from global solar dimming to global solar brightening [25, 27–29, 58].
We thus believe that the totality of our results demonstrates the potential of satellite remote sensing to identify long-term aerosol trends. Nevertheless, more work still needs to be done in terms of both verification and potential improvement of the AVHRR radiance calibration and comparisons of GACP aerosols retrievals with potentially more accurate retrievals afforded by the newer satellite instruments.

Acknowledgments
Anonymous reviewers provided useful comments which helped us to improve the manuscript. We thank Christopher Brest, Brian Cairns, William Rossow, and Larry Travis for numerous illuminating discussions. This research is part of the NASA/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GACP and has been funded by the NASA Radiation Sciences Program managed by Hal Maring. Partial support was provided by the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System’s Advanced Technology and Plans Program Element of the Program Executive Office for Environmental Monitoring managed by Stephen Mango. SSM/I data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems and sponsored by the NASA Earth Science REASON DISCOVER Project.
©2007 Optical Society of America


So the earth's atmospheric aerosols have been decreasing ever since 1991? LOL

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