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Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
11-09-2009, 09:10 AM,
#1
Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
6 11 2009

Guest post by Willis Eschenbach

The upcoming Copenhagen climate summit, officially and ponderously named “COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009″, is aimed at reducing the emissions of the developed world. The main players, of course, are the US and Western Europe. There is a widespread perception that if the US and Western Europe could only get our CO2 emissions under control, the problem would be solved. Nothing could be further from the truth.

To see the gaping hole in this idea, it is only necessary to look at the historical record of carbon emissions. Here is that graph:

[Image: carbon_emissions_trends.jpg?w=510&h=419]

While in 1970 the US and Western Europe combined to contribute about half of all CO2 emissions, at present this is far from true. In the past 35 years, the combined emissions of the US and Western Europe have risen only slightly. Globally, however, CO2 emissions have risen steeply, with no end in sight.

So it doesn’t matter if Europe signs on to a new Kyoto. It doesn’t matter if the US adopts Cap and Trade. Both of them together will make no significant difference. Even if both areas could roll their CO2 emissions back to 1970 levels, it would not affect the situation in the slightest.

These are meaningless attempts to hold back a rising tide of emissions. Me, I don’t think rising CO2 levels are a problem. But if you think it will be a problem, then you should definitely concentrate on adaptation strategies .. because mitigation simply isn’t going to work.
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11-10-2009, 07:31 PM,
#2
RE: Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
Nice one nik. I'll add it to my case for the government not to sign the Canadian's name to the carbon tax treaty but it seems they have a gun to their heads to comply on this one.

Original Article: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/06/why-copenhagen-will-achieve-nothing/
Dugg: http://digg.com/world_news/CO2_Climate_Change_Law_Why_Copenhagen_Will_Achieve_Nothing
There are no others, there is only us.
http://FastTadpole.com/
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11-12-2009, 04:37 AM, (This post was last modified: 11-12-2009, 04:38 AM by ---.)
#3
RE: Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
np

IEA: $500 billion for climate inaction
Published: Nov. 10, 2009 at 12:06 PM



LONDON, Nov. 10 (UPI) -- Each year the world delays implementing a global climate-protection deal will add $500 billion to the costs related to greenhouse gas emissions reductions, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

In its new World Energy Outlook 2010, the Paris-based IEA urged the world's nations to work together to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius. The framework for such a target will be discussed next month at a U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, that is aimed at producing a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which runs out in 2012.

"World leaders gathering in Copenhagen next month … have a historic opportunity to avert the worst effects of climate change," IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said in a statement.

But analysts have warned that a deal might be delayed until 2010 because industrialized and developing nations hold contradictory negotiation positions.

An adviser to 28 developed countries, the IEA in its new WEO urged for a reform of today's energy system to avoid excessive climate change abatement costs.

"Continuing on today's energy path, without any change in government policy, would mean rapidly increasing dependence on fossil fuels, with alarming consequences for climate change and energy security," the report said.

Due to the global downturn, energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions in 2009 are well below previous forecasts, the IEA said.

"But this saving will count for nothing if a robust deal is not reached in Copenhagen -- and emissions resume their upward path."

This would dramatically increase costs linked to global warming.

Starting in 2010, every year's delay would add another $500 billion to the $10.5 trillion needed between 2010 and 2030 to reduce CO2 emissions in a bid to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees C, a cap scientists say is critical to spare the world from the worst effects of climate change.

"A delay of just a few years would probably render that goal completely out of reach," the report said. "If this were the case, the additional adaptation costs would be many times this figure. Countries attending the U.N. Climate Change Conference must not lose sight of this."

If leaders fail to strike an agreement at Copenhagen and in the months beyond, global oil demand by 2030 is expected rise to 105 million barrels a day, the IEA said.

If, on the other hand, leaders strike a deal and boost electric mobility, renewables and energy efficiency, global demand for oil could rise by just 4 million barrels to 89 million barrels a day by 2030, the IEA said.

The IEA also revised its crude demand forecast for demand in 2015 to 88 million barrels a day, down from 94 million barrels a day a year ago. Oil prices will climb to $100 a barrel by 2020 and $115 a barrel by 2030, the IEA added.

A barrel of crude is currently valued at around $79, well below the record $147 it cost in July 2008.

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2009/11/10/IEA-500-billion-for-climate-inaction/UPI-19341257872770/
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11-21-2009, 05:27 PM, (This post was last modified: 11-21-2009, 05:40 PM by JazzRoc.)
#4
RE: Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
I agree that it seems unlikely to me that CO2 emissions are forcing global warming to the extent claimed.
What makes me feel uncomfortable is that whatever the SINK is that is masking the effect, we neither know WHAT it is, nor do we know for how long it might last.
We also know that Global DIMMING is masking warming, and also that the Earth's average temperatures are STILL rising. Glaciers are STILL SHRINKING, polar floating ice is DECREASING, and Greenland's ice crust is MELTING.
I heard (apocryphally) that the current rate of sea-level rise is 47mm per year, and we've had some spectacular flooding recently with precipitation rates the highest since records began.
And the global average temperature is still increasing. Deniers often seem convincing, but it's the EVIDENCE that convinces me.
As we pass over the peak oil bell curve with ever-increasing oil demand it will be a surprise to me if the other half of the curve gets us past 2025. And LONG before the tank is empty, it will be empty as far as you or I are concerned. "Carbon Taxes" are NEVER going to effect anything. Or affect anything.
We use oil to make fertilizer. We use oil to grow and collect food. We use oil to store and transport food.
Our "super" stores need oil to stock them and cool them, we need oil to get to them, and then we burn oil to cook this oil-based food. Boy are we going to get stuffed!

By "we", of course I mean "you":

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11-21-2009, 09:40 PM, (This post was last modified: 11-21-2009, 09:41 PM by ---.)
#5
RE: Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
I already live pretty much like the green nazis want to implement in many ways - I don't need corpulent hypocritical billionaires with pig farms to tell me to live ethically. I don't need draconian laws or guidance on it.

The supermarket is a horror experience. I avoid plastics where and when I can and even try and make organic mulch in my cellar!!

It is IMPOSSIBLE for them to mandate what they want unless they starve us.

Why are you convinced "peak oil" is the reality rather than a fabricated and grevious extension on the economics of scarcity from which the western society has always been governed?

But as you point out - carbon taxes help no-one except the managers that are driving us off the cliff.
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11-22-2009, 05:17 PM, (This post was last modified: 11-22-2009, 05:45 PM by JazzRoc.)
#6
RE: Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
I already live pretty much like the green nazis want to implement in many ways - I don't need corpulent hypocritical billionaires with pig farms to tell me to live ethically. I don't need draconian laws or guidance on it.
It's your commonsense to do so.
That guy ISN'T a "hypocritical billionaire". Look again. He could have exchanged his suburban house for a dilapidated 10-acre farm. Please point out to me where the hypocrisy is to be found in his behavior, for I cannot see any.

The supermarket is a horror experience. I avoid plastics where and when I can and even try and make organic mulch in my cellar!!
That's not a good place to make mulch. Either for your mulch or the house. There are more than a million species of life in a handful of soil.

It is IMPOSSIBLE for them to mandate what they want unless they starve us.
Even that won't work. Just about the only thing that will move millions-as-one is an obvious and immediate direct threat to life.

Why are you convinced "peak oil" is the reality rather than a fabricated and grevious extension on the economics of scarcity from which the western society has always been governed?
Because it is of NATURE. When it runs out it HAS run out. No-one can wish it back.
The original predictions and timings of the oil supply bell curve were made in the late fifties/early sixties. They were made by a skilled scientist and statistician. They have proved exactly correct and right on the button.

But as you point out - carbon taxes help no-one except the managers that are driving us off the cliff.
They won't be swift enough to help ANYONE. Arguing the rights and wrongs of them isn't worth the time for the result gained.

You REALLY HAD better do what the little fat fella is doing. Smile
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11-23-2009, 07:58 AM,
#7
RE: Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
Quote:Please point out to me where the hypocrisy is to be found in his behavior, for I cannot see any.

well, it's pretty clear considering his public persona. I knew about his slimey ways years ago before his latest ventures..Jello Biafra used to tell me all about Tipper too.

here's a start Smile
http://www.realchange.org/gore.htm

Please canyou save me some legwork and reference the pivotal studies relating to Peak Oil that you cited as proof.. I am not saying you are wrong, I would just like the opportunity to read them myself as best possible.

What is the little fat fella doing? If I really need to then I should ask what it is.

It's really dry in the "cellar" - well, pretty dry for a cellar anyhow .. it's not perfect but I am not going to be growing anything with it - when it's acceptable I'll throw it amongst the trees in the donkey's paddack across the way.. I am just loathe to chuck it in the bin to be "processed" by the #state entity. lol
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11-23-2009, 12:02 PM,
#8
RE: Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
ok, fair point. i will cease all cellar mulch activity.

http://www.dpiw.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/LJEM-673V89?open
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01-18-2010, 02:08 AM,
#9
RE: Why Copenhagen Will Achieve Nothing
i personally consider the carbon taxes as a way for companies to continue to pollute with a legal "bribe" which can then be passed on legitimately to the consumer. I think gore is playing the game in full knowledge that by the time he is dead and buried, the remainder of oil will be too expensive to use and people will already be on the case to fine alternative fuel sources. No doubt he will be given the credit for all this change as though before "an inconvenient truth" we all thought global warming meant nice hot summers and easy mild winters.
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