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The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
04-14-2010, 10:32 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-14-2010, 10:41 PM by ---.)
#1
The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
anyone listened to this?
You should. and i dont use the word "should" much.

For one thing, he doesn't see America crashing whatsoever but becoming ever stronger.
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04-14-2010, 11:36 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-14-2010, 11:36 PM by ---.)
#2
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
http://concen.org/tracker/torrents-details.php?id=15648

ebook's on there too
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04-15-2010, 02:43 PM, (This post was last modified: 04-15-2010, 02:44 PM by ---.)
#3
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
I am finding it easier to take it in what he is saying whilst listening by having a world map to hand, a globe would be even better. jmo
it would be fantastic to have a discussion about these forecasts and the premises he has made in making them.

many thanks for the upload 19truther84
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04-16-2010, 02:17 PM,
#4
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
I get the hint .. you are soo subtle nik.

Listened to it up to about 2040 then fell asleep for ~40 years -- woke up for some battlestar galactica action. I'll have to fill in the blanks. Then we can rip it apart in its entirety.

Subscribed.
There are no others, there is only us.
http://FastTadpole.com/
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04-16-2010, 02:48 PM,
#5
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
excellent - i am still in 2030. i keep relistening to some of the previous each time i go back to it.
it's cool because it is a premier contemporary work and is of our interests. So many tangents like Rand etc which a new vim could be stirred up to explore and we then all figure out how to be leaders or what not.

please post away. i'm still in the America not crashing figures checking part. a very good upload this one. I subscribed to stratfor when I was a mod for the articles. i don't think us lot need to worry too much about reading propaganda, generally speaking i think the site patronage incredibly more sus and canny to media than the comfort blanket intelligenci that are about to take front row lead in the stocks and rotten tomato chucking/hang draw quartering as the ptb attempt to quash the menace of crazy free thinking through the illusory murk that we somehow awoke to.

I'm stoked that you are up for discussing this book. I'm sure a bunch of other people could find a few hours for it too, iunno. But it is destined to be a very cool thread anyway.obviously. it is a super interesting book. good one.
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04-21-2010, 01:25 AM,
#6
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
I've listened to it now. Going to go through it again this weekend with a notepad.well worth the listen
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05-10-2010, 09:58 AM,
#7
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
I'll break it down decade by chapter, there's a lot going on. I'll skip past the intro as it offers up more of a summary and foreshadowing to serve the purpose of sinking the hooks into the reader (listener).

I'm not proficient enough on NLP methodology but I'd like anyone's analysis of the audio since it's being dictated by Friedman a very practised speaker and I think I picked up on a hint of it while listening.

01. Dawn of the American Age

American power is out of touch with reality being a relative infant relative to Atlantic Europe. American power is central in influence to the rest of the world. This book explores the ways that the heights of powered will be leveraged throughout the world. The balance of this power primarily though economic and military might from an American perspective is the main point of this book. Technology, trade, social influence and resource control are the main factors that control these global outcomes.

There is a large historical portion to this first chapter. Why Europe rose and fell as the central global serves as a template to blaze a trail of how that power was held, transfered and exerted. The reason America rose was because there was a void because America rose because of the economic, infrastructure destruction and human toll that Europe disproportionately suffered. Trading oil exclusively with the US dollar on oil wasn't mentioned but played a large role in its succession.

Population density is quantified as a potential for growth. There is much arable land available and can be self sufficient in food and energy production which is a significant advantage over almost all other nations. GMOs, pollution and depletion of soil would be the only catastrophic events that could tip this balance but should be considered.

Maybe for the populace but it will serve as the focal point for military based on the strategic location both in military and in trade. It also controls a large number of satellite territories. The American public is much more intelligent and resourceful than they are given credit for especially if you rank them internationally albeit the education system leaves much to be desired. As far as traditional energy resources they have good existing production the US great swaths of coal and the 'undiscovered' reserve card in Alaska can be tapped when needed.

A lot of the assumptions that are made include a reference to the vast resources and wealth that the US has access to. It is well positioned as a country now but Mr. Friedman seriously underestimates how quickly that can shift.

Control of the resources is important not only locations and that is also corporately controlled. Many African nations have vast wealth of resources but they are paid a pittance (Ethiopian coffee) for them because of unfair trade structures and foreign ownership of resources. A large portion of the US resource wealth is tied up in reserves and national parks, many of which are held as collateral for foreign debt in tandem with the promise of American labour. The key advantages that the US holds are a relatively educated populace, a robust infrastructure and it's access to trade routes.

The Suez canal is primarily owned by a private French multi-national conglomerate called GDF Suez. Just because the trade routes are are on American soil does not mean that they are controlled by American interests.

The education of Americans has been steadily declining but they are still competitive. A big advantage that they have is that English is the primary language of business. That too can shift over time, but for now we'll chalk that up as an advantage.

The naval forces are unsurpassed and they are allied with the UK. China is making a strong push directed to for a strong naval force now. So in terms of a visible traditional military the US is in a good position on the sea. This may become less of a factor in the future citing long range warfare in the use of robotics, weather weapons but will always be paramount in control of trade and assertion of military might.

Military technology is increasingly being exported and pirated from the US. Technology can change abruptly a migration to red mercury (I heard the Nazi used it in WWII) or Tesla style energy can be a game changer. These technologies are held from the masses and kept secret by the few. No doubt, there is a trump that can render current military strength of the US irrelevant and/or relatively primitive. EM pulse and weather technology comes to mind for starters.

Wealth is easily transferable via the mechanisms of currency valuation, stock trading and the corporate/government powers behind them. The wealth follows the technology since the best minds are often recruited by the highest bidder. To counteract this the main investment should be education involving critical thinking and innovation, a restructuring of the outdated school system would be necessary to achieve these ends. To develop these ideas free flow of information should be available in the face of protectionist copyright and patent laws that stifle potential innovation. The giants of the past are a vital element in the development of anything from social structure to a better mouse trap and to deny us from climbing these broad shoulders would handicap progress.
There are no others, there is only us.
http://FastTadpole.com/
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05-10-2010, 11:11 AM,
#8
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
"No doubt, there is a trump that can render current military strength of the US irrelevant and/or relatively primitive."

any evidence for that?
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05-10-2010, 11:58 AM,
#9
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
(05-10-2010, 11:11 AM)nik Wrote: "No doubt, there is a trump that can render current military strength of the US irrelevant and/or relatively primitive."

any evidence for that?

I'm making informed speculation based on history and my knowlegde set but ultimately I am making an assumption. Technology tends to appear during times of war. It makes no sense to reveal one's hand before such a scenario where such a game changer would be used.

EM pulse technology is well known and could serve as a trump if systems are not hardened against it. Same goes for a computer virus. Much has changed in terms of a smaller world with more open borders.

A widespread implant of moles in military and decision making positions with access to critical systems, both civilian and military, are not only possible but likely.

Unknown biological weapons, chemical and weather weapons are probably on stand-by. I wouldn't discount mind disruption or control technology. There were reports of distraught Iraqis laying down their arms in fear without a shot fired - contrary to their culture of fighting to the death. The US sprayed LSD over the people in a small town in France, I wouldn't discount any ruthless method that could be employed during war.

Use your imagination. A war's victor is predetermined by those who instigate it a way to manipulate an outcome would be an offering of hidden technology can leverage those bets to produce the desired effect. More often than not though the goal is to keep it going against balanced forces to achieve a high casualty ratio and strike terror into people. A shocked population would then be ready to mould.
There are no others, there is only us.
http://FastTadpole.com/
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05-10-2010, 01:38 PM,
#10
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
Smile okay, i'll use my imagination. I must say - I took a different reading from the first chapter, somehow I get the feeling you possibly think the first chapter would better be titled "The Sunset of the American Age".

I am not discounting novel forms of conflict or aggression but, to my mind, it seemed that his premise was that even in a time of war with a ruthlessly protectionist state; America still has all the necessary geopolitical features to be for all intents and purposes, unassailable - whereas you take the line that America is in deep trouble and Friedman's summary omits too many vital aspects of the overall situation?
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05-10-2010, 02:29 PM,
#11
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
What I was trying to establish in a common theme that it is not about nations but about how power is shifted around to groups, individuals and corporations. He attributes America with a sense of permanence that may have translated better in earlier times and serves the purpose of the book by way of linear predictability. He tries to establish this by declaring America as an adolescent nation and points to Europe as a long standing dynastic centre of power. There is simply too many variables to validate his predictions. He certainly underestimates the speed in which change can occur in today's age and overestimates the laurels of America.

My conclusion is that the pieces in play are much more versatile and manoeuvrable when you take into account the acceleration of technology, the banked technology, the speed and transferability of information, the ease at which an agent can infiltrate a system and the fragile nature of global economics coupled with its ability to be manipulated quickly.

His historical insights that he uses to back some conclusions are a good framework for influence on future events and his geopolitical insights are sound but there are quite a few factors left out of the equation. That said, Friedman digs deep into the intangibles and quantifies the pieces in play as he sees them very well.
There are no others, there is only us.
http://FastTadpole.com/
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05-10-2010, 09:02 PM, (This post was last modified: 05-10-2010, 09:25 PM by h3rm35.)
#12
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
even if you're impressed by the book, I'd stay away from STRATFOR... mostly because the subscription cost is insane, and it's very frustrating to read through one article and not have access to the articles linked in the text. plus they fill your email box with tons of ads to subscribe.

edit: would you guys mind seeding this? right now there's only one, and the data's barely trickling...
[Image: conspiracy_theory.jpg]
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05-10-2010, 11:07 PM, (This post was last modified: 05-10-2010, 11:09 PM by ---.)
#13
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
(05-10-2010, 02:29 PM)FastTadpole Wrote: What I was trying to establish in a common theme that it is not about nations but about how power is shifted around to groups, individuals and corporations. He attributes America with a sense of permanence that may have translated better in earlier times and serves the purpose of the book by way of linear predictability. He tries to establish this by declaring America as an adolescent nation and points to Europe as a long standing dynastic centre of power. There is simply too many variables to validate his predictions. He certainly underestimates the speed in which change can occur in today's age and overestimates the laurels of America.

My conclusion is that the pieces in play are much more versatile and manoeuvrable when you take into account the acceleration of technology, the banked technology, the speed and transferability of information, the ease at which an agent can infiltrate a system and the fragile nature of global economics coupled with its ability to be manipulated quickly.

His historical insights that he uses to back some conclusions are a good framework for influence on future events and his geopolitical insights are sound but there are quite a few factors left out of the equation. That said, Friedman digs deep into the intangibles and quantifies the pieces in play as he sees them very well.

you see a fragile America? I don't mean sociologically, I mean in terms of the MIC..

rep +1 for bump starting this thread.
(05-10-2010, 09:02 PM)h3rm35 Wrote: even if you're impressed by the book, I'd stay away from STRATFOR... mostly because the subscription cost is insane, and it's very frustrating to read through one article and not have access to the articles linked in the text. plus they fill your email box with tons of ads to subscribe.

edit: would you guys mind seeding this? right now there's only one, and the data's barely trickling...

I'll do my bit but not able to seed until later
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05-10-2010, 11:30 PM,
#14
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
(05-10-2010, 11:07 PM)nik Wrote: I'll do my bit but not able to seed until later

thanks.
[Image: conspiracy_theory.jpg]
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05-11-2010, 04:00 AM,
#15
RE: The Next Hundred Years Audiobook
Quote:you see a fragile America? I don't mean sociologically, I mean in terms of the MIC..

Assuming MIC == Money, Influence & Control

I am seeing a power base that is without allegiance to a nation. It will be the nation that offers the best deal to the elite in terms of regulation, subsidy, compatible education, security and control that will win their favour but at the same time have a populace that has enough to offer and is not too submissive so that they can broker themselves a reasonable deal or they may just be opening themselves up to an aggressive raping. With access to a strong labour force to do their bidding. A government that adheres to their whim is also important the US has that with a lot of these factions.

The Zionist control is well placed in the US so they have done their best to make them their ally. They have put in place laws that favour corporations and they will invest accordingly in response. Their banking system is under distress but so is everywhere else. A world digital currency is unpredictable in that wealth allocation will be subject to the will of the arbitrators that would put valuations on a nation and issue capital and credit. It would be highly centralized so the cards will be dealt by the few if the world goes that route. It may be backed by gold or silver but the majority of that is in the also leveraged to possession of the few or eventually will be via price manipulation to corner the market or simply confiscation, both of which were done before.

The other factions are in China where they have lax environmental standards and a low working wage. The EU is a good place for security and a financial centre since they can rule without having to get elected they run a dictatorship there. The same can be argued for the US since they have been running the government like a dictatorship and have the option for military law and have an easily manipulated (well-trained) population that is receptive to media influence by design. The resources are in reach and they have a large consumer base to fund their ventures. The education creates a populace is competent enough to run their service empires. I could see the US being a resource economy for its vast mineral / energy deposits and swaths of arable farmland. I could never see them being relegated to 3rd world status for these reasons alone, not to mention the trade routes. Add to that the technological know-how (although it is losing ground) and a mature infrastructure that is in place with a populace
that can utilize it and the US is in a good position for at least the next 100 years.

If the people do not take the levers of power back you must look at the elite factions and see how they wish to disperse power throughout the globe. The nation state is secondary and is an outdated model in the globalist age since everything is so mobile and intertwined.
There are no others, there is only us.
http://FastTadpole.com/
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