'Iran halts nuclear program'

[Guest]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle...cle3221003.ece3

Iran 'has halted its nuclear weapons programme'
By Leonard Doyle in Washington
Published: 04 December 2007

In a blow to Bush administration hawks demanding military strikes on Iran, a US intelligence report reveals that Tehran's secret nuclear weapons programme was shut down four years ago.

The finding which has come as a surprise to friends and foes of the US concluded: "We do not know whether [Iran] currently intends to develop nuclear weapons." That is in sharp contrast to an intelligence report two years ago that stated Iran was "determined to develop nuclear weapons".

US officials said the report showed that the Bush administration was right to conclude that Tehran intends to develop nuclear weapons in the long term. They also said that Iran was forced to end its secret programme because of financial sanctions and diplomacy backed up with the threat of force.

"Today's National Intelligence Estimate offers some positive news," said the National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley. "It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons."

He added that on balance the report was "good news", insisting it showed Tehran was susceptible to international pressure but that the risk of it acquiring nuclear weapons "remains a very serious problem".

President Bush seemed to prepare the ground for just such an attack last month when he declared that any international effort to avoid "World War III" would have to start by preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability. Vice-President Dick Cheney then threatened "serious consequences" if Tehran did not abandon its nuclear programme.

As these threats were being made, the CIA had secretly concluded that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ended the nuclear weapons work years ago in the face of diplomatic pressure and the threat of sanctions. The order " was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure," the spy agencies said.

The report, a synthesis of the country's 16 intelligence agencies, said they "do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons" . But it went on to say that President Bush "has the right strategy" with Iran.

The report was meant to be released last spring but was delayed to avoid the mistakes of a similar exercise on Iraq in 2002 which exaggerated Saddam Hussein's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction and cleared the way for the US-led invasion.

Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, said the assessment was " directly challenging some of this administration's alarming rhetoric about the threat posed by Iran." The administration should " appropriately adjust its rhetoric and policy".

The report said Iran was not a rogue regime, but a rational country where " decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs."

[Guest]

"..but capability remains." :laugh:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRA...EMPLATE=DEFAULT

Assoc.Press

[Guest]

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/15F...E0EB10D72BD.htm

[Guest]

Christian ex cia analyst:


A Miracle: Honest Intel on Iran Nukes

By Ray McGovern
December 3, 2007

For those who have doubts about miracles, a double one occurred today. An honest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program has been issued and its Key Judgments were made public.


With redraft after redraft, it was what the Germans call “eine schwere Geburt”—a difficult birth, ten months in gestation.

I do not know how often Vice President Dick Cheney visited CIA Headquarters during the gestation period, but I am told he voiced his displeasure as soon as he saw the first sonogram/draft very early this year, and is so displeased with what issued that he has refused to be the godfather.

This time Cheney and his neo-con colleagues were unable to abort the process. And after delivery to the press, this child is going to be very hard to explain—the more so since it is legitimate.

The main points of the NIE:

“We judge that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program...

“We assess with moderate confidence Tehran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.

“We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely...

“We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame.

“We judge with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015.”

Having reached these conclusions, it is not surprising that the NIE’s authors make a point of saying up front (in bold type) “This NIE does not (italics in original) assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons.”

This, of course, pulls out the rug from under Cheney’s claim of a “fairly robust new nuclear program” in Iran, and President Bush’s inaccurate assertion that Iranian leaders have even admitted they are developing nuclear weapons.

Apparently, intelligence community analysts are no longer required to produce the faith-based intelligence that brought us the Oct. 1, 2002, NIE “Iraq’s Continuing Program for Weapons of Mass Destruction”—the worst in the history of U.S. intelligence.

Truth be told, one of the Iran NIE’s findings was written into its first draft, from which Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell drew in telling the Senate Armed Services Committee on Feb. 27 that Iran could possibly develop a nuclear weapon by early-to-mid-next decade.

McConnell said not a word, though, about Iran’s having halted its nuclear weapons program in fall 2003. And in February, he was still adhering to the faith-based approach, saying, “We assess that Iran seeks to develop a nuclear weapon.”

At which point, Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-South Carolina, tried to sum up the proceedings with the disingenuous comment, “We all agree, then, that the Iranians are trying to get nuclear weapons.”

Curiously, McConnell indicated recently that the key findings of NIEs would no longer be made public.

My guess is that the Pentagon, and especially Adm. William Fallon, commander of our forces in the Middle East, succeeded in persuading McConnell to go public. Several months ago, Fallon was reliably reported to have said, “We are not going to do Iran on my watch.”

And it is an open secret that he and other senior military officers, except those of the Air Force, are strongly opposed to getting into a war with Iran for which the U.S. is so ill prepared.

Will President George W. Bush and our domesticated media succeed in dismissing this latest NIE as “guesswork,” as he has in the past? It is going to be highly interesting to see how the White House will try to spin this one.

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2007/120307.html